Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/134133
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Revealing mechanisms of infectious disease spread through empirical contact networks |
Author: | Sah, P. Otterstatter, M. Leu, S.T. Leviyang, S. Bansal, S. |
Citation: | PLoS Computational Biology, 2021; 17(12):e1009604-1-e1009604-20 |
Publisher: | Public Library of Science |
Issue Date: | 2021 |
ISSN: | 1553-734X 1553-7358 |
Editor: | Althouse, B. |
Statement of Responsibility: | Pratha Sah, Michael Otterstatter, Stephan T. Leu, Sivan Leviyang, Shweta Bansal |
Abstract: | The spread of pathogens fundamentally depends on the underlying contacts between individuals. Modeling the dynamics of infectious disease spread through contact networks, however, can be challenging due to limited knowledge of how an infectious disease spreads and its transmission rate. We developed a novel statistical tool, INoDS (Identifying contact Networks of infectious Disease Spread) that estimates the transmission rate of an infectious disease outbreak, establishes epidemiological relevance of a contact network in explaining the observed pattern of infectious disease spread and enables model comparison between different contact network hypotheses. We show that our tool is robust to incomplete data and can be easily applied to datasets where infection timings of individuals are unknown. We tested the reliability of INoDS using simulation experiments of disease spread on a synthetic contact network and find that it is robust to incomplete data and is reliable under different settings of network dynamics and disease contagiousness compared with previous approaches. We demonstrate the applicability of our method in two host-pathogen systems: Crithidia bombi in bumblebee colonies and Salmonella in wild Australian sleepy lizard populations. INoDS thus provides a novel and reliable statistical tool for identifying transmission pathways of infectious disease spread. In addition, application of INoDS extends to understanding the spread of novel or emerging infectious disease, an alternative approach to laboratory transmission experiments, and overcoming common data-collection constraints. |
Keywords: | Animals Lizards Bees Salmonella Infections, Animal Communicable Diseases Social Behavior Computational Biology Algorithms Models, Biological Euglenozoa Infections |
Rights: | © 2021 Sah et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009604 |
Grant ID: | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP130100145 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DE170101132 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009604 |
Appears in Collections: | Animal and Veterinary Sciences publications |
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hdl_134133.pdf | Published version | 2.02 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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