Impact of Cognitive-Affective-Motivational Factors on Trajectories of Risk Taking in Adolescence: Evidence from the CogBIAS Longitudinal Study

Abstract

While many neurodevelopmental accounts of risk-taking behaviours in adolescence point to an adolescent brain-behavioural phenotype characterised by reward hypersensitivity, less research has focused on individual differences in the cognitive processing of emotional stimuli which may trigger approach motivated behaviours, predisposing some adolescents to take risks. This study sought to examine individual markers for age-related changes in risk propensity, measured on the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), and real-world risk involvement by modelling both outcomes longitudinally in the same sample of adolescents. Behavioural inhibition, drive, reward responsivity, fun seeking, negative urgency and sensation seeking were assessed in a large normative sample (N = 504; mean ages: 13.4, 14.5, 15.7) across three waves as part of the CogBIAS Longitudinal Study. Age, NU, SS and Drive all uniquely predicted increased RI, while RR predicted lower prospective RI. In contrast, age was the only robust predictor of increased scores on the BART, with negative urgency inhibiting risk propensity. The strongest indicator of prospective risk involvement was negative urgency, with the greatest impact at ages 15-17. Interpretation bias, known to play a role in the triggering and maintenance of anxiety, was found to moderate the effect of negative urgency on risk involvement in later adolescence, offering a cognitive mechanism that may prove a useful focus for prevention or early intervention. This study adds to the differential susceptibility literature by examining the structure and function of an adolescent motivational drive and proposing key cognitive-affective markers for neurobiological reactivity predicting risk-taking in adolescence. Keywords: motivation, emotion, risk-taking, adolescence