Fertility decisions of women in the context of extreme climate events: A study in two areas hit by cyclones and floods in Bangladesh

Abstract

This study investigates to what extent fertility decisions are influenced by extreme climate events in two villages in Bangladesh: Chadnimukha prone to severe cyclones and Lamagaon to floods. Extensive studies have examined the effects of extreme climate events on mortality and migration, but limited research attention has been paid to fertility. This thesis seeks to fill this knowledge gap by examining the fertility decisions of married Bangladeshi women and comparing the differences between the two villages. The study uses a mixed methods approach (quantitative and qualitative analysis) to collect diverse types of information to understand the determinants of fertility in response to extreme climate events. In 2019 to 2020, through fieldwork, primary data were collected in household surveys (N=544) and in-depth interviews (N=74) from married women aged 18 to 49 years with at least one child who were living with their husbands. First, interviews (N=8) were undertaken with key informants and focus group discussions (N=10) were held with male participants to develop a comprehensive understanding of the extreme climate events, their impacts, and typical health issues in the study areas. Secondary data on fertility and extreme climate events were also collected from various sources, including the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, and the World Bank. This study found that women living in the flood-prone village had and intended to have more children than their counterparts in the cyclone-prone village, who were more likely to limit their childbearing. The number of cyclones experienced, household vulnerabilities, the timing of first birth, physiological effects, and seasonal migration tended to limit fertility. Floods, on the other hand, affected fertility due to lack of health facilities and unavailability of contraceptives, risk of infant mortality and preference for sons, which inspired women to have more children. It was also found that the fertility intentions of women in both villages differed according to their experience and perception of extreme climatic events for which their villages were most at risk. In response to extreme climate events on household well-being, including agriculture, livelihoods, housing and food security, women were more likely to delay their next birth for at least two years. However, women from flood-affected households intended to have additional children in response to the effects of floods, either as an insurance measure for the household against the possible loss of a child due to a flood, or as a way to increase family livelihood and security where children could act as potential resources to help families deal with future risks. This research concludes that the type of extreme climate event experienced can determine in what direction and to what extent fertility will change. It also contends that the impact of such events on underlying direct and indirect determinants that influence fertility is distinguishable, and that fertility considerations can and should be incorporated into disaster risk reduction and population policy. With the increasing frequency and severity of climate-related events, policymakers must understand how extreme climate events affect fertility rates in order to provide advice for social and economic development approaches. Furthermore, such information will help to generate population estimates, which can include the consequences of climate change at different stages of demographic change.